A regular briefing for the alternative asset management industry.
Since January's inauguration, the Trump White House has been focused on doing deals, using the US government's unparallelled economic might and political power to strike bargains. And, although not the only tool, tax policy has been at the centre of many of the negotiations: the administration has deliberately created huge tax uncertainty to bring counterparties to the table, offering better treatment – and restoring some measure of certainty – if they play ball.
Tariffs have been centre stage – playing havoc with deal planning and leaving markets guessing about the final impact of increased import taxes on the US economy. But other tax changes – or the prospect of them – have also had a big impact on the private markets.
The so-called "revenge tax" is a case in point. Proposed among a range of other tax measures as part of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) legislative process, the central idea was that, if another country taxed American companies in a way the administration deemed unfair, the US could retaliate. Certain investment returns from the United States to residents of those countries would have faced increased US tax. The revised rates would be set high enough to hurt, and it was clear that the UK and many other European countries were among those who might be targeted. Unsurprisingly, the proposal spooked international investors.
Although experts had concerns about the legality of some aspects of the revenge tax, it did result in a deal: in return for dropping the proposal, corporate groups with US-based parents will be exempt from new international rules that will apply a minimum tax rate of 15% to large multinationals. These rules – known as "Pillar 2", and emanating from the OECD – are designed to avoid companies shifting profits to low tax countries. They were supported by the Biden administration and have already been implemented in many jurisdictions. They create compliance headaches for global firms, and the compromise with the US now throws some important aspects of the regime back up in the air. Although the US exemption has been agreed in principle, most of the detail still needs to be worked out. So, while dropping the revenge tax meant that one destabilising measure would not be taken forward, it added uncertainty elsewhere.
