On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that a wide range of tariffs imposed by President Trump in 2025 were unlawful. In response, he has stated that he intends to impose 15% tariffs under a different statute. We look at the implications for exporters to the US.
What does the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling mean for exporters to the US?
Overview
Will goods from the UK be subject to the 15% tariff?
It remains to be seen how the latest tariffs will be applied to goods exported from countries such as the UK, which was previously subject to a baseline tariff of 10% for most products (higher in some cases, lower in others). One potential problem for the US Administration is that the statute on which it is now relying may offer less scope for treating some countries differently from others.
At the time of writing, it appeared that US Customs was proceeding on the basis of President Trump's initial decision to impose a 10% tariff, since this is what the Executive Order issued after the Supreme Court ruling says. According to press reports, the Administration is working to update the rate to 15%, but it is not clear when this will happen.
Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative has indicated that the US intends to "stand by" trade agreements with other countries. However, if – as suggested above - the statute on which the US is now relying restricts or prevents some countries being treated more favourably than others, it's not immediately clear how this would work. It should also be borne in mind that the UK's deal with the US did not cover all goods and was focused on particular sectors, such as automotive and aerospace (see this briefing) – although the UK might well argue that the 10% baseline tariff for most other goods from the UK was part of a broader understanding between the parties on bilateral trade, which should be honoured.
Who pays and what about refunds?
Whether exporters to the US will have to foot the bill for the revised tariffs typically depends on the terms of their contracts with US customers (and the default position is that the importer – which is usually the customer – pays). Similarly, exporters will only be entitled to refunds on the tariffs that have recently been declared unlawful if they were the ones that had to pay them in the first place – and further litigation is expected before it becomes clear whether and to what extent any refunds will be available.
What's the outlook?
Looking further ahead, the US Administration will need the approval of Congress if it wishes to retain the new tariffs for longer than 150 days. Such approval is not a foregone conclusion – for example, a majority of the House of Representatives (including 6 Republicans) recently voted in favour of a resolution calling for withdrawal of tariffs imposed on Canadian exports to the US. The vote would also be taking place in the run-up to the US mid-term elections on 3 November 2026 – so much may depend on how President Trump's tariff policy is perceived by voters (current polling suggests that a majority view it unfavourably).
However, other statutes are likely to enable the US Administration to impose tariffs on a more targeted basis – and it may well use the 150 day period to lay the groundwork for such measures. Whilst a further legal challenge will almost certainly be brought against the latest tariffs, this is very unlikely to be resolved within 150 days – and will not prevent President Trump using other statutes in an attempt to preserve as many new tariffs as possible.
