The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt Hon John Healey MP, will deliver his first Budget on Wednesday 28 October 2026.
The new Chancellor inherits all of the same economic challenges, and even more of the geopolitical instability, that his predecessor faced, but he has taken charge of HM Treasury alongside a wave of promises from the new Prime Minister to bring "new hope", give people and businesses "a little breathing space", devolve spending power to the regions, address the crisis in social care, materially increase defence spending … and "stick well within [Rachel Reeves'] fiscal rules"… and honour the Labour government's 2024 Manifesto pledges to "not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT": still the three largest revenue-raising levers available to any government.
John Healey was appointed was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer on 20 July 2026. Budget Day, Wednesday 28 October 2026, will mark his 101st day in post. Can he meet all the expectations, find something to please everyone, and still balance the books?
Data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (March 2026), HM Treasury (September 2026), the Office for National Statistics (August 2026) illustrate the scale of his task:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (forecast average):
- 1.2% in 2026; and
- Remaining flat at 1.2% in 2027
- Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation (forecast average):
- 3.4% in 2026; and
- Falling to 2.3% in 2027
- Public Sector Net Borrowing (forecast total public spending in excess of total government receipts):
- £115.5bn (3.6% of GDP) in 2026/27;
- Falling to £96.5bn (2.9% of GDP) in 2027/28; and
- Down from £134.3.0bn (4.4% of GDP) in 2025/26.
- Public Sector Net Debt (forecast total amount that the government owes):
- £2,985.5bn (at the end of August 2026) or 94.8% of GDP;
- Rising to 95.7% of GDP in 2027/28; and
- Up from 93.3% of GDP in 2025/26.
- Net debt interest (based on the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook in March 2026):
- £89.0bn in 2026/27
- Rising to:
- £94.9bn in 2027/28
- £103.7bn in 2028/29, and
- £111.3bn in 2029/30.
