Take a Chancellor on me?

Ed Miliband (Chancellor of the Exchequer A)

Odds: 8/15 (Favourite)

• Current Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero.
  
  
• 'Left-of-centre' of Labour Party. 'Keynesian' interventionist. Proponent of 'responsible  capitalism'. Supports state-backed 'green' industrial strategy and increased borrowing for capital investment and public spending on addressing regional inequalities. Considered by some to have the experience and "strategic vision to accelerate investment and rebuild public trust in the state’s ability to 'get things done'". Reportedly acting as an advisor to Burnham on fiscal rules and maintaining bond market credibility.
  
  
• MP for Doncaster North. Leader of the Labour Party (2010-2015). Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero (2021-2024). Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (2020-2021). Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change (2008-2010). Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (2007-2008). Minister for the Cabinet Office (2007). Chairman of HM Treasury’s Council of Economic Advisers (2004–2005). Special Adviser to Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown (1997–2002).
  
  

Wealth Tax

Considered to be on the 'left' of the Labour Party (including on tax policy), Miliband has long supported greater taxation of wealth. He has been associated with comments that suggest the UK's tax system under-taxes accumulated wealth relative to earned income. This aligns him closely with Burnham.

That said, also in alignment with Burnham, Miliband has not advocated publicly for a formal wealth tax. With Miliband as leader, the Labour Party Manifesto for the general election in 2015 emphasised the importance of encouraging an "inclusive wealth-creating economy" supported by "a government that is both pro-business and pro-worker" and "help businesses grow and to create wealth and jobs". The same document also contained a pledge – subsequently enacted by the current government – to abolish non-dom status.

CGT

Miliband has not set out any detailed public personal position on CGT reform. Although his broader views on the taxation of wealth suggests affinity with reform that could involve increasing CGT rates (relative to rates on income) he has not - unlike Wes Streeting (see Chancellor of the Exchequer D below) - endorsed calls for the equalisation of CGT and income tax rates.

The Labour Party Manifesto 2015 was silent on CGT policies.

Income Tax

The Labour Party Manifesto 2015 proposed introducing a lower 10p starting rate of tax (to help those on middle and lower incomes), and reintroducing the 50p top rate of income tax (abolished by Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, in 2013), arguing "that the top one per cent pay a little more to help get the deficit down" (instead of continuing policies of austerity).

With that exception, the 2015 Manifesto contained a pledge to "not increase the basic or higher rates of Income Tax, National Insurance or VAT", remarkably similar to the 2024 Manifesto's pledge not to raise the main rates of income tax, VAT, or NIC. It has been reported that Miliband has been advising Burnham on the importance of 'fiscal discipline', so it perhaps unsurprising that Burnham has reiterated the 2024 pledge.

Although the proposal lacked detail, the 2015 Manifesto also included a pledge to introduce a 'Bank Bonus Tax' to pay for a Compulsory Jobs Guarantee (a scheme to provide a paid starter job for young people unemployed for over a year).

However, since returning to frontbench politics (in April 2020), Miliband has not publicly called for any increase in income tax rates.

Land Tax

Miliband has not made any recent direct public statements on the taxation of land.

However, land taxation was a theme in Miliband's 2015 Labour Party Manifesto which contained a proposal to introduce "a Mansion Tax on properties worth over £2m". Arguing that it was 'fair' that those who benefit most from rising property values should contribute more, the Mansion Tax was a purely revenue-raising proposal intended "to help raise the £2.5bn a year for an NHS Time to Care Fund"; it did not form part of a wider programme for the reform of land taxation. A form of Miliband's mansion tax, the HVCTS, charged on residential properties worth £2m and above in England, was announced in the 2025 Budget and will take effect from April 2028.

Miliband has also been a supporter of business rates reform in the past. Again, his 2015 Labour Party Manifesto promised to "cut, and then freeze business rates for over 1.5m smaller business properties". However, again, rather than representing fundamental reform, the proposal was justified by a promise to maintain (and not cut) the main rate of corporation tax. 

Pat McFadden (Chancellor of the Exchequer B)

Odds: 11/4

• Current Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.
  
  
• 'Right-of-centre' of Labour Party. 'Blairite' pragmatist. Emphasises fiscal discipline, policy coherence, market reassurance, and deficit control. Prioritizes public spending restraint and economic stability over state-led intervention or large-scale borrowing. Has reportedly been discussing welfare policy with Burnham.
  
  
• Reported as saying (in a text message sent to Peter Mandelson) that, "Every meeting I have [with Labour MPs] is: 'Who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others?' They're asking the wrong questions". McFadden has subsequently stood-by that statement re-affirming his desire to change the system.
  
  
• MP for Wolverhampton South East. Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (2024–2025). Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2021–2023). Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury (2020–2021). Member of Commons Treasury Select Committee (2011–2014). Political Secretary to Prime Minister Tony Blair (2002–2005).
  
  

Wealth Tax

McFadden has little previous frontline exposure to tax policy-making positions. It is, then, unsurprising that he has made few publicly reported pronouncements that indicate his thinking on any specific tax policy.

This includes taxes on wealth and formal wealth taxes. However, his 'Blairite' reputation in the Labour Party, and the implication drawn from the text message sent to Peter Mandelson, suggest that he would not necessarily support using tax to raise more revenue for spending more on welfare. If that is correct, it is a view that almost certainly extends to a wealth tax.

During a Westminster Hall debate (in June 2022) on New Wealth Taxes, McFadden (then Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury), did not express a view in support of (or opposition to) introducing a formal wealth tax. Instead, he focused on 'wealth creation', arguing that "[any] serious party of Government must support wealth creation just as much as fair wealth distribution… If we support that wealth creation and create the wealth the country needs, we should match that to fair taxation that can give us the public services that underpin a good society" and concluding, "[the] overall tax burden is now the highest it has been in 70 years, while our economic growth rate in the last 12 years has been anaemic. Those two things are related." What was true in 2022 is, presumably, still true in 2026.

In the same debate, McFadden also spoke in favour of abolishing 'non-dom' status asserting, "[the] principle that we adopt on this issue is very simple: if someone makes the United Kingdom their home, they should pay their tax here." Non-dom status was abolished by the current government with effect from April 2025.

CGT

McFadden has not made any public statement on CGT policy generally. He has not expressed a public view on the suggestion that CGT rates should be aligned with income tax rates.

McFadden has spoken in support of reforming the taxation of carried interest (described by McFadden as private equity bonuses) to ensure it is taxed as akin to income (rather than capital gain). The taxation of carried interest has since been reformed by the current government.

Income Tax

In his comments during the 2022 Westminster Hall debate on New Wealth Taxes, McFadden appeared to criticise the (then Conservative) government for the inflationary pressures created by its "national insurance increase, [and] the decision to freeze personal allowances for five years". McFadden explicitly, correctly, linked those tax rises with the constraining effect they have on UK economic growth.

Land Tax

McFadden has publicly supported analysing the possibility of introducing a Land Value Tax (LVT). He is reported as describing an LVT as "a very productive form of taxation". His support for an LVT aligns him closely with Burnham.

McFadden has argued for "the current system of business rates in the UK to be replaced with a new system of business taxation that … would create a more modern balance between the physical and the digital and between local high streets and out-of-town locations" linking the need for reform to the changing nature of the national and global economy. This reflects one of Burnham's core policy priorities.

Yvette Cooper (Chancellor of the Exchequer C)

Odds: 8/1

• Current Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs.
  
  
• 'Soft-left' of Labour Party. Mainstream social democrat. Fiscally cautious. Supports targeted public investments to fund public services. Prioritizes evidence-based growth strategies to tackle regional inequality while maintaining commitment to economic stability.
  
  
• MP for Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley. Home Secretary (2024–2025). Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee (2016–2021). Shadow Home Secretary (2011 to 2015). Shadow Foreign Secretary (2010 to 2011). Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (2009–2010). Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2008–2009). Married to Ed Balls, former Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer (2011-2015).
  
  

Wealth Tax

Cooper's main senior front-line government experience (in roles as Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary) has kept her relatively distant from tax policy debates. There is little public commentary on her fiscal views and preferences. She is, however, a highly experienced and qualified government minister, with a strong background in economic affairs.

Cooper has not publicly advocated for a specific wealth tax. However, during her campaign to be elected leader of the Labour Party in 2015, she positioned herself as 'economically centrist' prioritising the promotion of economic growth rather than wealth redistribution through new taxes. On this basis and given her involvement with the Blair and Brown 'New Labour' governments, Cooper is considered to be fiscally 'orthodox'.

While she is likely to support progressive tax changes, Cooper is unlikely to champion radical new taxes on assets.

CGT

Cooper has not set out a public position on CGT reform in recent years. She has not, for example, argued for the alignment of CGT and income tax rates. She has voted (in alignment with her Party whip) against proposals to change (both upward and downward) CGT rates.

However, during her time as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, under Prime Minister Gordon Brown, she operated within the existing tax framework during the global financial crisis, rather than proposing structural changes to capital taxation. 

Income Tax

Cooper has historically taken a cautious line on income tax, supporting fiscal discipline and avoiding commitments to raise rates.

She does, however, have a reputation for supporting a more 'progressive' tax system where higher income earners pay higher rates of tax. This was illustrated during her 2015 bid for the leadership of the Labour Party (following Ed Miliband's resignation after Labour's general election defeat that year) where she promised to retain the pledge to reintroduce a 50p additional rate of income tax on earnings above £150,000 (contained in the Labour Party Manifesto 2015).

In 2018, expressing concern about measures to 'freeze' working age benefits, Cooper voted against then Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond's Budget proposal to increase the income tax personal allowance and the higher rate income tax threshold, defying an instruction from her party's leadership to abstain.

Land Tax

Cooper has not expressed a public opinion on property taxation reform. She has not publicly supported (or opposed) a land value tax, council tax revaluation, business rates reform, or the abolition of stamp duty land tax (SDLT).

Wes Streeting (Chancellor of the Exchequer D)

Odds: 9/2

• Current Backbench MP.
  
  
• 'Right-of-centre' of Labour Party. Blairite. Modernizing pragmatist. 'Disrupter' critic of 'Treasury orthodoxy'. Prioritises public service structural reform to enhance efficiencies. Resigned as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care in May 2026 indicating he would stand in any contest to replace Sir Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party. In June 2026 endorsed Andy Burnham.
  
  
• MP for Ilford North. Secretary of State for Health and Social Care (2024–2026). Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care (2021-2024). Shadow Secretary of State for Child Poverty (2021). Shadow Minister for Schools (2020-2021). Shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury (2020). Member of House of Commons Treasury Select Committee (2015–2019). Member of Redbridge London Borough Council (2010-2018).
  
  

Wealth Tax

Claiming that the current tax system rewards wealth accumulation over employment, and thereby encourages widening inequality, Streeting has proposed the introduction of "a wealth tax that works". He has not expanded on what such a tax might look like or how it might operate. Streeting has attempted to present the policy as 'pro-growth' and is quoted as saying it would, "protect genuine entrepreneurs and long-term investment that contributes to economic growth". Again, Streeting has not described how a 'genuine entrepreneur' would be identified. He has justified his support by arguing that income arising from assets should be taxed no more lightly than income earned from work.

While the justification for Streeting's pronouncements align with Burnham's own views on inequality and the divergent tax treatment of capital and income, the proposed solution is much more radical. Despite Streeting's apparent support for a formal wealth tax, Burnham has been careful not to commit to introducing one. 

CGT

Streeting is also the only prospective candidate for Chancellor to propose equalising CGT and income tax rates. For Streeting, equalising rates is a matter of fairness because the current system artificially distinguishes between earned and unearned income, penalising workers while rewarding the accumulation of wealth (by, for example, landlords).

Were it enacted, Streeting's proposal would see CGT taxed at the same rates as earned income (20%, 40% and 45%). This, Streeting argues, would raise around £12bn a year. This figure ignores the effect of behavioural change (including, for example, accelerated (or deferred) disposals and capital flight) that will follow the introduction of the policy.

In addition, what Streeting makes less clear is that capital is generally taxed at a lower rate because it comprises amounts that have already been taxed and the current CGT system lacks any allowance for inflation (making 'gains' an inaccurate reflection of a 'real' return). When Nigel Lawson aligned income tax and CGT rates in 1989, CGT contained an indexation allowance that enabled the system to adjust the size of a gain for inflation.

Income Tax

Unlike some traditional 'left-leaning' tax proposals, that often call for higher rates of income for the highest earners, Streeting has argued that taxes on work (at all levels) are already high. He has been quoted as saying that the population were "paying higher taxes than ever". As already illustrated, Streeting's preference is to shift the tax burden away from earned income and towards wealth.

Streeting's broader economic programme advocates lower taxes on labour combined with reforms to wealth and capital taxation. He has not committed to raising income taxes, nor to reducing them.

Land Tax

With his focus on rebalancing the taxation of capital with income, Streeting has not made many public announcements relating to the taxation of land. Unlike Burnham, reform of property taxes does not appear to be a central theme in Streeting's fiscal thinking.

During the 2024 general election campaign he refused to rule out that a future Labour government would update or revalue council tax bands as a form of 'Mansion Tax'. This policy was subsequently adopted in the form of the HVCTS, which will take effect in 2028.

Rachel Reeves (Chancellor of the Exchequer Z)

Odds: Unpriced (as almost certain to be replaced).

• Current Chancellor of the Exchequer.
  
  
• First ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer. Proponent of 'securonomics', an 'iron grip' on public finances, strict fiscal rules, and modern supply-side economics. Focuses on economic resilience and supply-chain security. Prioritises economic growth through enlarged labour supply and enhanced structural productivity. Supports reducing inequality and tackling environmental damage.
  
  
• MP for Leeds West and Pudsey. Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer (2021–2024). Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (2020-2021). Chair of the Business and Trade Select Committee (2017–2020). Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2011–2013). Former professional economist at the Bank of England.
  
  

Wealth Tax

Reeves has consistently resisted calls to introduce a formal wealth tax as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

She has instead pursued reforms to existing taxes on assets including, for example, reforming 'non-dom' tax status in Budget 2024. She has also made targeted reform to IHT by bringing pension pots into scope and reducing agricultural and business property relief. She has described her approach as "closing loopholes" in existing tax rules rather than introducing new taxes on wealth.

CGT

Reeves raised CGT rates in the October 2024 Budget, increasing the lower rate from 10% to 18% and the higher rate from 20% to 24%. She justified the increases as part of "a large package of tax rises aimed at extracting more revenue from asset-rich individuals." Reeves has, however, always resisted calls for the full equalisation of CGT rates with income tax rates.

Responding to speculation before Budget 2025, Reeves explicitly ruled out extending CGT to primary residential properties as part of proposals for wider reform of property taxation Reeves instead chose to introduce the HVCTS. 

Income Tax

Despite enormous pressure, and heated speculation in the run-up to Budget 2025 that they would rise, Reeves has not increased income tax rates. This is in line with the Labour government's general election manifesto pledge not to raise the main rates of income tax.

However, Reeves has continued, and extended, the 'freeze' on the personal allowance and higher-rate thresholds. This is a policy that is often described as a 'stealth tax' because, over time, it draws more taxpayers into higher bands through fiscal drag.

In addition, Reeves increased the rate of employer NIC (from 13.8% to 15%) and lowered the earnings threshold at which employers begin paying the tax from £9,100 to £5,000 per year

Land Tax

Despite reports that fundamental reform of land taxation has been a central part of her policy thinking for a long time, and that she had ordered HM Treasury to examine reforms to SDLT, Council Tax and the taxation of property generally, Reeves has maintained SDLT (and other elements of property taxation) in place without major structural reform.

In 2018 she wrote a paper calling for the overhaul of Council Tax and its replacement "with a property tax levied on property owners". She has also called for a re-evaluation of Council Tax, which is still based on 1991 property valuations. Reeves instead introduced the HVCTS in Budget 2025. The main Council Tax system remains based on 1991 property valuations.