What to expect from Andy Burnham: Potential legal and policy changes under the new UK Prime Minister

Taxation is going to be a weathervane issue for the Burnham administration. The level of speculation around his choice to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor of the Exchequer reflects the central importance of fiscal and monetary policy, both economically and politically. 

A change at the top, however, does not change the underlying realities. The new Prime Minister and his new Chancellor will inherit the same economic challenges that Sir Kier Starmer and Reeves had to grapple with: economic growth subdued; borrowing stubbornly high; national debt (and the cost of servicing it) crippling; and, increasingly confrontational geoeconomics.

Despite a pledge to 'not take risks with the public finances', Andy Burnham enters No.10 with a 'left-of-centre' reputation for more expansive public spending, and the support of Labour MPs who want to see the UK Government 'do more'. Given the other routes to raising money to fund his programme are largely blocked, further tax increases seem inevitable. That might, however, also open the door to opportunities for more fundamental reform in areas that are in desperate need it (the taxation of property for example). Andy Burnham's faith in the power of devolution and collaboration will also be an area to watch in relation to how much he uses it to rewire the UK's tax system. After that, the only questions that remain are: which taxes will rise; by how much; and how fast? The money markets and businesses will be watching closely.

The ability of Andy Burnham and his new Chancellor to use tax policy to generate growth for the long-term, as well as raise revenue in the short-term, could determine the success (or otherwise) of his government. 

For deeper analysis of the possible direction of tax policy under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, and any one of the five main contenders to be Chancellor, read Take a Chancellor on me?

Andy Burnham's Manchester Speech included the following statement on utilities: "we will ensure all parts of the UK are able to take greater public control of essential services like water, housing, energy and transport, learning from the model of that has transformed our bus networks here in Greater Manchester." That model involved public control of routes and networks, but with the actual operation of services being franchised out to private operators (utilising the framework in the Bus Services Act 2017). This indicates an acceptance of a role for the private sector, albeit subject to a significant degree of public control. That said, it's important to acknowledge that the UK Government is moving away from this type of franchising model in relation to the passenger rail sector (suggesting that it is not seen as suitable in all contexts) – and Andy Burnham does not appear to have dissented from this policy.

Energy and net zero

Here, we expect a high degree of policy continuity. Previous statements by Andy Burnham suggest that he is broadly aligned with existing UK Government policy on net zero and he is known to be politically close to Ed Miliband, who is currently Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. It's also worth highlighting that the Burnham Programme website expressly rules out "full energy nationalisation", acknowledging that private investment in generation is critical for new nuclear and offshore wind. 

In a recent article in the Financial Times, Andy Burnham was reported to have been critical of an "outsourced state with little accountability" and indicated that he would like to see more "insourcing" of contracts to deliver public services. 

Here's what Andy Burnham said in his Manchester Speech:

"For too long, UK public procurement policy has been based on chasing cut-price deals around the world rather than helping our own British-based suppliers become more stable and competitive.

No more. From here on, every pound raised from taxpayers will work harder for them – and that approach will apply fully to the Defence Investment Plan. We will make sure that all eligible public contracts are subject to proper social value weighting.

And we will do that to make sure British-based companies are in a better position to win contracts. This change is essential given the need to build our own resilience in places across the country in an increasingly uncertain world."

The emphasis on social value (as opposed to an approach based primarily on price) would appear to reflect existing UK Government policy on public procurement, as evidenced by this recent speech by Cabinet Office Minister Chris Ward and amendments to relevant guidance made in February 2025.

In his Manchester Speech, Andy Burnham said that "No 10 North will oversee the biggest council house building programme since the post-war period" and will use "vacant public land to reduce costs."

The Burnham Programme website argues for a "target of 500,000 new council and social homes within eight years, to be funded through a dedicated £40bn Social Housing Bond facility; secured lending against rental income streams in council Housing Revenue Accounts, not general government borrowing." It suggests that building at this scale should mean that a national procurement framework could be used, which could in turn be expected to lower construction costs due to the high volumes involved and assurance of multi-year contracts. As pointed out above, it's unclear how accurately this website reflects Andy Burnham's own views, but it does at least provide some indication of the possible scale of any initiative.

Andy Burnham has said he would like the UK to rejoin the EU within his lifetime but doesn't want to “re-run the [2016] referendum now”. Instead, he has pledged to seek a “closer relationship” with European countries, and “consolidate the progress made” on existing negotiations with the EU.

Defence spending is high on the agenda. In one of his final decisions in office, Sir Keir Starmer announced a plan to increase military spending by £15bn over the next four years by cutting spending in other parts of government. This prompted a row over funding and the resignation of his Defence Secretary, John Healey. As any commentators have suggested, there still appears to be a significant funding gap which Andy Burnham will need to resolve. The Burnham Programme website contains some suggestions as to how this gap could be bridged, although as noted above, it is unclear how far these reflect Andy Burnham's own views. There is also suggestion of a strong focus on domestic production and supply chains, and further defence procurement reform.

In his Manchester Speech, Andy Burnham referred to defence in connection with procurement (see above – and for a broader discussion of the procurement framework for defence, read Our Armed Forces are only as strong as the industry that stands behind them | Travers Smith). He also indicated a desire to use spending on defence to reinvigorate the UK's industrial base, whilst signalling that government contracts would come with strings attached, including an obligation to offer in-work training for young people:

"We need to safeguard sovereign manufacturing and production capability across the country in critical sectors like steel, defence, energy, food and farming – rather than just being prepared to let it just go as we have sadly done in the past.

In return, we will recycle maximum benefits for our communities and residents. For instance, by requiring a much greater supply of 45-day work placements and apprenticeships for young people."

So far, Andy Burnham has not commented on the employment law reforms already underway under the Employment Rights Act 2025. However, he has indicated that he will generally stick to the Labour manifesto from 2024. Given most of the employment reforms represent manifesto commitments, it would be surprising if the UK Government were to row back on them. Draft regulations have already been laid bringing in the much-publicised reforms to unfair dismissal – the reduction in the service requirement to six months and the removal of the cap on compensation – into effect from 1 January 2027. Both are set to apply where the employee's employment terminates on or after 1 January 2027.

During his time as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham introduced a "Good Employment Charter" stating that "providing good employment is a win-win" for businesses and "employers who are best at engaging and supporting their employees are the most successful".

On immigration, Andy Burnham has not laid out any specific policies but has said recently that net migration needs to fall further. He is therefore unlikely to change direction from the UK Government's recent reforms aimed at tightening the immigration rules. The UK Government is currently consulting on plans to double the standard route to settlement for many visa holders from five to ten years. Andy Burnham has in the past expressed his broad support for the reforms but has also expressed concern about the possible retrospective effect on those already in the UK.

With Parliament in recess from the week before he takes over as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham will initially face limited scrutiny from the House of Commons. Press reports suggest that he plans a "summer tour" to include visits to areas where the Labour Party is felt to have lost support, adopting a more upbeat and optimistic tone in an attempt to reverse widespread voter disillusionment with politics in general. If successful in engendering a greater sense of optimism, this could provide a boost to consumer confidence – which would obviously be welcome news for business.

That said, none of this will be an easy "sell" given current levels of public scepticism and the relatively complex and long term nature of many of the initiatives underway. As noted in our assessment of the public finances and tax position, it's unlikely that the new administration will have much room for manoeuvre in terms of major new spending commitments. 

Finally, there is always potential for being blown off course by geopolitical risks such as the ongoing Middle East conflict, which can absorb considerable Prime Ministerial time. Andy Burnham will therefore need to ensure that he is able to devote sufficient attention to his domestic agenda which – to judge from his statements to date – is what he regards as his key priority if Labour is to stand any chance of winning the next election.